The Chimerican era is drawing to a close. After the bursting of the debt and housing bubbles, U.S. household savings will have to rise again. Washington aims to buffer this necessary adjustment by running sizeable budget deficits. Public dis-saving can temporarily compensate for higher private savings to maintain final demand, but the American consumer faces a lengthy adjustment period and will ultimately have to pay the bill for this fiscal largesse. Beijing's first response to the collapse in global demand was to loosen credit and pump money into domestic construction and infrastructure projects.

In the first six months of 2009 the government in Beijing ordered the banks to make new loans of close to 10 trillion renminbi or about 40 per cent of GDP. If these numbers can be trusted, China is going through one of the most remarkable experiments in monetary history. Stimulating domestic demand is, of course, the right policy response. But while these policies may ease the transition towards a more balanced economy, albeit at a cost to future taxpayers, a structural adjustment will still have to occur in the international economy. U.S. consumption will have to grow considerably less than U.S. production for a sustained period.

As long as exchange rate policy implicitly taxes consumption and subsidizes exports in China, surpluses will persist and a reorientation towards domestic growth will face important structural headwinds. Sooner or later relative prices between the two economies will have to change (Feldstein, 2008). A major exchange rate revaluation is in the American interest for at least three reasons.

First and foremost, exchange rate adjustment would help the reorientation of the U.S. economy. Chinese currency policy effectively forces an overvalued real exchange rate on the United States. Simply put, because Beijing keeps the exchange rate fixed, the dollar cannot devalue against China (and other parts of Asia) despite the large U.S. trade deficits. This makes it impossible for the American economy to earn its way out of the slump. Without an exchange rate adjustment, the United States will be forced to run expansive domestic policies if it wants to achieve full employment. In theory, to be sure, the United States could deflate to regain competitiveness against Asia, but deflation is out of the question for such a highly leveraged economy.

Second, by allowing the United States to import demand from abroad, exchange rate adjustment would lessen the potentially dangerous reliance of U.S. economic policies on measures to stimulate domestic demand. American fiscal policy is clearly on an unsustainable path and it is hard to judge the consequences of the financial distortions and potentially inflationary outcomes caused by zero interest rates and quantitative easing. To the extent that exports could become a meaningful source of U.S. growth again, such highly experimental policies could be ended sooner.

Finally, a Chinese exchange rate adjustment would reduce the risk of potentially grave trade frictions not only between the United States and Asia, but also between Europe and Asia. China's implicit dollar peg leads to the paradoxical situation that the renminbi devalues on a trade-weighted basis as the dollar continues its downward trajectory against the other major currencies. Sooner or later Europe, Japan and the other Asian economies will have to object if Chimerica as a bloc devalues against the rest of the world. If the United States is serious about its commitment to globalization and free trade, it cannot connive at a policy of Sino-American competitive devaluation that creates new distortions for the world economy.

A case can also be made that revaluation is in the Chinese interest. A further substantial increase in the volumes of U.S. government debt and dollars in circulation cannot be in the interest of biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries. After a decade of rapid reserve accumulation, policy makers in Beijing discovered in early 2009 how far their growth strategy had made them dependent on policy choices in Washington D.C. that were dictated primarily by domestic concerns. In short order, the U.S. government announced a $1.5 billion budget deficit and the Federal Reserve decided to buy hundreds of billions of government and agency debt. Recent Chinese statements questioning the future of the dollar as an international reserve currency (for example the proposal that the IMF's Special Drawing Rights become an alternative to dollars) have to be understood in this context. Beijing knows very well that in the short term there is no good alternative to the dollar. It is the vehicle currency for more than 80 per cent of Asian trade. It remains the predominant currency in central bank reserves. For historical and political reasons, Asian governments are reticent to accept their neighbors' currencies as a store of value.

True, the euro now offers financial markets of depth and liquidity comparable with those of the United States. Yet meaningful diversification of reserves is ultimately incompatible with a dollar-only peg. In theory, Beijing could diversify out of Treasuries into other fixed income assets or equities. But not many countries will accept large equity stakes of the Chinese government or government-controlled companies in key sectors of domestic industries. This explains why the preferred Chinese strategy at the time of writing is to acquire stakes in commodity-producing assets like mines and oilfields in comparatively poor and politically unstable countries where concerns about foreign ownership are less of a political obstacle. But such a policy does not address the underlying problem of renminbi undervaluation.

In brief, the sooner China faces the fact that it cannot avoid sizeable losses – say about 20 per cent of GDP in renminbi terms – on its dollar reserves, the better. These financial losses will be a modest price to pay for a development model that propelled China from Third World status to an economic powerhouse in less than 15 years and will in any case be more than compensated for by the increase in the dollar value of China's vast stock of RMB assets. With seven million jobs lost, the U.S. economy so far has taken a disproportionate share of the economic costs of the Chimerican divorce. It is in the interests of both sides that China play its role in the rebalancing of the world economy—to say nothing of the interests of the rest of the developed world, notably America's partners in Europe and Japan, who are taking most of the strain of the dollar-renminbi slide.

Текст 6 Theory of Knowledge for /The Encyclopaedia Britannica/

Bertrand Russell

Theory of knowledgeis a product of doubt. When we have asked ourselves seriously whether we really know anything at all, we are naturally led into an examination of knowing, in the hope of being able to distinguish trustworthy beliefs from such as are untrustworthy. Thus Kant, the founder of modern theory of knowledge, represents a natural reaction against Hume's skepticism. Few philosophers nowadays would assign to this subject quite such a fundamental importance as it had in Kant's "critical" system; nevertheless it remains an essential part of philosophy. It is perhaps unwise to begin with a definition of the subject, since, as elsewhere in philosophical discussions, definitions are controversial, and will necessarily differ for different schools; but we may at least say that the subject is concerned with the general conditions of knowledge, in so far as they throw light upon truth and falsehood.

It will be convenient to divide our discussion into three stages, concerning respectively (1) the definition of knowledge, (2) data, (3) methods of inference. It should be said, however, that in distinguishing between data and inferences we are already taking sides on a debatable question, since some philosophers hold that this distinction is illusory, all knowledge being (according to them) partly immediate and partly derivative.

The definition of knowledge. The question how knowledge should be defined is perhaps the most important and difficult of the three with which we shall deal. This may seem surprising: at first sight it might be thought that knowledge might be defined as belief which is in agreement with the facts. The trouble is that no one knows what a belief is, no one knows what a fact is, and no one knows what sort of agreement between them would make a belief

true. Let us begin with belief.

Traditionally, a "belief" is a state of mind of a certain sort. But the behaviorists deny that there are states of mind, or at least that they can be known; they therefore avoid the word "belief", and, if they used it, would mean by it a characteristic of bodily behavior. There are cases in which this usage would be quite in accordance with common sense. Suppose you set out to visit a friend whom you have often visited before, but on arriving at your destination you find that he has moved, you would say "I thought he was still living at his old house." Yet it is highly probable that you did not think about it at all, but merely pursued the usual route from habit. A "thought" or "belief" may, therefore, in the view of common sense, be shown by behavior, without any corresponding "mental" occurrence. And even if you use a form of words such as is supposed to express belief, you are still engaged in bodily behavior, provided you pronounce the words out loud or to yourself. Shall we say, in such cases, that you have a belief? Or is something further required?

It must be admitted that behavior is practically the same whether you have an explicit belief or not. People who are out of doors when a shower of rain comes on put up their umbrellas, if they have them; some say to themselves "it has begun to rain", others act without explicit thought, but the result is exactly the same in both cases. In very hot weather, both human beings and animals go out of the sun into the shade, if they can; human beings may have an explicit "belief " that the shade is pleasanter, but animals equally seek the shade. It would seem, therefore, that belief, if it is not a mere characteristic of behavior, is causally unimportant. And the distinction of truth and error exists where there is behavior without explicit belief, just as much as where explicit belief is present; this is shown by the illustration of going to where your friend used to live. Therefore, if theory of knowledge is to be concerned with distinguishing truth from error, we shall have to include the cases in which there is no explicit belief, and say that a belief may be merely implicit in behavior. When old Mother Hubbard went to the cupboard, she "believed" that there was a bone there, even if she had no state of mind which could be called cognitive in the sense of introspective psychology.

In order to bring this view into harmony with the facts of human behavior, it is of course necessary to take account of the influence of words. The beast that desires shade on a hot day is attracted by the sight of darkness; the man can pronounce the word "shade", and ask where it is to be found. According to the behaviorists, it is the use of words and their efficacy in producing conditional responses thatconstitutes "thinking". I It is unnecessary for our purposes to inquire whether this view gives the whole truth about the matter. What it is important to realize is that verbal behavior has the characteristics which lead us to regard it as pre-eminently a mark of "belief", even when the words are repeated as a mere bodily habit. Just as the habit of going to a certain house when you wish to see your friend may be said to show that you "believe" he lives in that house, so the habit of saying "two and two are four", even when merely verbal, must be held to constitute "belief " in this arithmetical proposition. Verbal habits are, of course, not infallible evidences of belief. We may say every Sunday that we are miserable sinners, while really thinking very well of ourselves. Nevertheless, speaking broadly, verbal habits crystallize our beliefs, and afford the most convenient way of making them explicit. To say more for words is to fall into that superstitious reverence for them which has been the bane of philosophy throughout its history.

Belief and behavior.We are thus driven to the view that, if a belief is to be something causally important, it must be defined as a characteristic of behavior. This view is also forced upon us by the consideration of truth and falsehood, for behavior may be mistaken in just the way attributable to a false belief, even when no explicit belief is present-for example, when a man continues to hold up his umbrella after the rain has stopped without definitely entertaining the opinion that it is still raining. Belief in this wider sense may be attributed to animals-for example, to a dog who runs to the dining-room when he hears the gong. And when an animal behaves to a reflection in there; this form of words is permitted by our definition. It remains, however, to say what characteristics of behaviour can be described as beliefs. Both human beings and animals act so as to achieve certain results, e.g. getting food. Sometimes they succeed, sometimes they fail-, when they succeed, their relevant beliefs are "true", but when they fail, at least one is false. There will usually be several beliefs involved in a given piece of behaviour, and variations of environment will be necessary to disentangle the causal characteristics which constitute the various beliefs. This analysis is effected by language, but would be very difficult if applied to dumb animals. A sentence may be taken as a law of behaviour in any environment containing certain characteristics; it will be "true" if the behavior leads to results satisfactory to the person concerned, and otherwise it will be "false". Such, at least, is the pragmatist definition of truth and falsehood.

Truth in logic. There is also, however, a more logical method of discussing this question. In logic, we take for granted that a word has a "meaning"; what we signify by this can, I think, only be explained in behaviouristic terms, but when once we have acquired a vocabulary of words which have "meaning", we can proceed in a formal manner without needing to remember what "meaning" is. Given the laws of syntax in the language we are using, we can construct propositions by putting together the words of the language, and these propositions have meanings which result from those of the separate words and are no longer arbitrary. If we know that certain of these propositions are true, we can infer that certain others are true, and that vet others are false; sometimes this can be inferred with certainty, sometimes with greater or less probability. In all this logical manipulation, it is unnecessary to remember what constitutes meaning and what constitutes truth or falsehood. It is in this formal region that most philosophy has lived- and within this region a great deal can be said that is both true and important, without the need of' any fundamental doctrine about meaning. It even seems possible to define "truth" in terms of "meaning" and "fact", as opposed to the pragmatic definition which we gave a moment ago. If so, there will be two valid definitions of "truth", though of course both will apply to the same propositions.

The purely formal definition of "truth" may be illustrated by a simple case. The word "Plato" means a certain man; the word "Socrates" means a certain other man; the word "love" means a certain relation. This being given, the meaning of the complex symbol "Plato loves Socrates" is fixed; we say that this complex symbol is "true" if there is a certain fact in the world, namely the fact that Plato loves Socrates, and in the contrary case the complex symbol is false. I do not think this account is false, but, like everything purely formal, it does not probe very deep.

Текст 7 . Coca-Cola. History of Advertising

Advertising for Coca-Cola began within days of the creation of the newsoda fountain beverage in 1886. Early advertising on oilcloth signs (“Drink Coca-Cola. Delicious. Refreshing”) focused simply on consumer awareness of the existence of the refreshing beverage. Countless novelty items depicting the trademark were given away at sales locations, creating an important channel for constant product promotion. In 1894, the first outdoor painted wall on a drugstore in Cartersville, Georgia, became the forerunner of thousands to follow until nationwide use of billboards began in 1925.

Since the 1920s, radio has been an important medium of communication and continues to be a large segment of the merchandising mix for the Company. Coca-Cola became one of radio’s first commercial sponsors during the 1930s. In 1950, the Company’s first network television advertising appeared during, a live Thanksgiving special featuring Edgar Bergen and .Charlie McCarthy. Use of this all-powerful new medium quickly grew to giant proportions.

As bottlers began selling Coke in bottles, availability skyrocketed. Advertising followed the lead to make Coca-Cola the best-known soft drink in the world. Now-famous print ads, featuring fine illustrations by top artists including Norman Rockwell, projected memorable images of the drink’s quality in leading magazines. And it is unlikely that any commercial slogan will ever surpass the lasting impact of “The Pause that Refreshes” which appeared first in The Saturday Evening Post in February of 1929.

Through holiday advertising for Coca-Cola in 1931, artist Haddon Sundblom introduced the world to the image of Santa Claus as we know it today. In his paintings, Mr. Sundblom depicted the 20th century Santa Claus with the flowing white beard, rosy cheeks, brilliant red outfit and portly silhouette that has become the standard against which all other Santas are measured. Until then, Santa had been depicted as everything from a pixie to an elf to a frightening gnome. The popular Santa “portraits” continued as holiday ads in the’50s and’60s.

Early advertising discouraged calling the product “Coke.” Consumers were urged to ask for Coca-Cola by its full name because nicknames encouraged substitution. But the name “Coke” was here to stay. So in 1941, the Company used “Coke’’ in advertising and in 1945, “Coke” was registered as a trademark by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

Whatever the medium, advertising for Coca-Cola has reflected the changing moods of America - from flappers through wartime, to the rock ’n’ roll 1960s, and on to the rappin’ 1990s.

Today, advertising for Coca-Cola and the Company’s other products is carefully aimed toward individual tastes while still underscoring the universal appeal of refreshment.

Ad Creation

Advertising the world’s best-known consumer product demands the talents of professionals in many different areas. The Company enlists the very best experts in the creative, media planning and buying, research and sales promotion arenas from several advertising agencies to work in cooperation with its internal marketing and media teams. Because these agencies are used exclusively for ad creation, the Company chooses not to accept ideas from the general public.

Coca-Cola is the world’s most global brand; we’re doing business in almost 200 countries. It is imperative that we know our consumers well. Through the use of presearch methods and trends studies, we feel we are the world’smost knowledgeable consumer marketing organization.

An example of these efforts is the ongoing Global Teenager Project. With ethnographic research as our primary tool, we can describe our primary target consumers and their changing needs and environment. Once we know about our consumers, we must be single-minded in our pursuit of creative excellence to reach them...

In 1993, The Coca-Cola Company moved its agency work for our Global Brands, on a skill match basis, to a roster of more than fourteen agencies. These agencies have skills that directly align with the strategic needs of the brand to which they are assigned.

Every notable campaign begins with extensive testing and research, from which come hundreds of promotional ideas and seasonal slants with campaign potential. Afteran ideais agreed uponwith Company management, these agencies work to create, develop and implement the product advertising including television, radio and print media. The commercial music is usually written by composers under contract by the ad agencies. Specialists also write the lyrics.

Additionally, our advertising and marketing programs address the burgeoning choices offered by technological advances. We will continue to be at the forefront whether the medium is simply one of 500 television channels or any other vehicle on the information highway.'

The multiplicity of agencies and media reflect the Company’s drive to communicate. We must reach our consumers in a language they understand and in accessible and appropriate media.

Marketing Philosophy,

As Stated in ‘Coca-Cola, A Business System Toward 2000: Our Mission in the1990s’, the Company is committed to building aggressively on its marketing strength in order to achieve profitable growth in this decade and beyond.

Because of the complexities of operating a business in more than 195 countries and provinces, tailoring marketing programs to certain regions of the world is critical to the Company’s continuing success. For example, in newmarkets such as Poland and India, the Company’s marketing goal is very basic, and efforts are more focused on simply establishing a viable bottling system.

In emerging markets, however, the primary concern is how to build enough bottling plants to meet demand. Marketing goals then become more diverse as the soft drink industry expands, product availability increases and consumer desire evolves for wider product range and choice in package types and sizes.

In highly developed markets, such as North America and most of Western Europe, marketing efforts capitalize on more sophisticated emerging consumer preferences,such as the fast-growing market for low-calorie beverages or alternative beverages.