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| 1) judge 2) weigh 3) betray 4) choose 5) action 6) define 7) exist 8) dismiss 9) desperate 10) pollute | 11) solve 12) reduce 13) anticipate 14) predict 15) assume 16) negotiate 17) emphasize 18) decide 19) emerge 20) control, v |
Ex.2. Complete each sentence using a word derivationally related to the word given in brackets:
1) Sometimes we make snap … that in retrospect seem wise. (judge)
2) We may be … by fate even if we carefully … the pros and cons. (betrayal, weight)
3) The homeless have no decent homes and are in … situations. (despair)
4) Sometimes choices are not clear and their results are … . (predict)
5) Before … makers reach conclusions, they try to … outcomes. (decide, anticipation)
6) If we want to save the lives of hostages, should be … with terrorists. (negotiations)
7) Choices … after information about problems and outcomes has been examined. (emergence)
8) Reducing acid rains requires costly … in … created from dying trees. (reduce, pollute)
Ex.3. What is the English for:
1) бездеятельность
2) обвинение, иск, судебный процесс
3) дать определение
4) существовать, иметь место
5) увольнять (кого-либо за что-либо), распускать (организацию)
6) загрязнение окружающей среды
7) решение (вопроса)
8) уменьшать, понижать (налоги)
9) ударение, акцентирование внимания на чем-либо
10) стоять лицом к (чему-либо)
11) надзор, контроль
12) влияние, воздействие
Ex.4. Translate the following words and word combinations:
| A 1) to make decisions 2) to have ramification 3) to weigh pros and cons 4) to be betrayed by fate 5) to put things off 6) to ignore problems 7) action/ inaction 8) decision/ nondecision | В 1) decision-making process 2) to define (a problem) 3) to recognize 4) to exist 5) to search 6) to emerge (about choices) 7) to evaluate the effects 8) to anticipate the outcomes |
B. Pre-reading Exercises
Ex. 1. Guess the meaning of the following words and word combinations:
impulsive decision, to make a snap judgment, ongoing choices, problem in the background, to take a closer look, to be vaguely aware, to establish the criteria, multiple goals.
C. Reading
Ex. 1. Read the text for general information to complete the following statement:
1) The text deals with the problem of … and its four major elements: …
2) It is emphasized in the text that the first and the most important element in policy making is …
3) The next step is to learn more about the problem, and this learning is called …
4) As problems are defined and information about them is examined choices …
5) Decisions do not end with choices among alternatives; decision-making involves …
Elements and models of a Decision-making Process
We all make decisions all the time. Some are small; some will have ramifications throughout our lives. Sometimes we make snap judgments that in retrospect seem wise. Other times we carefully weigh the pros and cons but are betrayed by fate. Often the most important decisions are nondecisions: we put things off, choose to ignore problems, or to avoid situations or people and later discover that inaction has consequences just as important as those resulting from action.
Four processes of decision-making
Whether small or large, short- or long-term, studied or impulsive, decision-making involves four major elements: problem definition, information search, choice, and evaluation. They are not sequential, they occur simultaneously. And it is often difficult to identify when a decision process begins and ends as most important choices are ongoing.
Problem definition
The first step in defining a problem is recognizing that it exists. Then, problems are plentiful; attention is scarce. Selecting a problem for attention and placing it on the policy agenda is the most important element in policy making. When a problem is given attention, it gains focus and takes shape. How a problem is defined affects how it is addressed.
Information search
When we are only vaguely aware that a problem exists, our first step is often to learn more about it, and this learning is an important step in the decision-making.
Information has always been central to governing, and governments are primary sponsors of research both in the sciences and humanities. Such research is driven by the interests of scholars and may not have immediate relevance to policy debate. But it may have important policy implications. For example, advances in lasers and genetic engineering influence defense and social policy in ways unanticipated by scientists or their government sponsors.
Choice
As problems are defined and information about problems and outcomes is examined, choices emerge. Weighing options and selecting are the most visible decision-making processes.
Sometimes choices are difficult and taking decisions is very hard, especially when choices are not clear and their results are unpredictable.
The selection process does not necessarily require reasoned judgments; the compromises of group decision-making often produce results that only few individuals prefer; satisfying single interests often means ignoring the interests of others.
Evaluation
Decisions do not end with choices among alternatives. Decision-making involves evaluating the effects and actions. Evaluation may be formal (an official study of the results produced by a new government program) or informal (scanning the news, talking to colleagues).
Whether formal or informal, evaluation is another form of information gathering after the choice.
The distinction between information search and evaluation is arbitrary. Before decision makers reach conclusions, most try to anticipate outcomes.
The most difficult aspect of evaluating choices is establishing the criteria. The most common criterion is the result – if things turn out well we feel that we made the right choice. But in this case we may confuse good luck with good decision-making. Results are not universal criteria for the quality of a decision. The evaluation of any decision-making must involve looking at results and processes as well as the situation faced by decision makers.
Models of decision-making
There is no right or wrong way to make decisions. Sometimes cautious deliberation is the best path; at other times risks are required. But scholars speak about two broad categories of models of decision-making: rational and nonrational models.
Rational decisions are choices based on judgment of preferences and outcomes. They are not always turn out best and they do not eliminate the possibility of failure. Sometimes the goal is so important that it is rational to choose an option with little promise of payoff.
In nonrational models choices do not result from the deliberate balancing of pros and cons. These models share the assumption that the mix of rules and participants shape choices, and that decisions result from the varying (though not necessarily accidental) mix of ingredients. Most of governmental decisions are within these models. The decision process there is too complex to take into account multiple goals, alternatives and impacts of every alternative; the time required to take a decision is too short; the finances are too thin to provide long researches.
Taken to extremes, rational models reduce human judgment to computation, and nonrational models portray decision outcomes as the result of forces beyond individual control.
Both rational and nonrational models of the decision process are products of value-neutral social science. Values enter rational decision models only in the form of preferences, but they are generally defined in terms of self-interest. An emerging view of decision-making places a stronger emphasis on decisions as value statements.
Дата: 2019-02-02, просмотров: 258.