A. Energy consuption in the industry sector

B. Projected development of nuclear power

C. Nuclear energy use in Japan

D.World primary energy demand

E. Future energy demand

F. Nuclear fuel resources

G. Nuclear energy use wordwide

H. Energy use in transport

I. Nuclear energy use in Germany

K. Energy use in chemicals sector

ENERGY USE IN INDUSTRY

1. The trend in world primacy energy demand is steadily growing as the result of the increasing world population and the expansion of the global economy. With the introduction of new policies to encourage energy savings, the demand might grow at a slower pace (1.2% per year) but will nevertheless continue to rise. Assuming no change in policies, the average growth rate is estimated to be 1.5% per year for the next 20-30 years. However, even a fundamental transformation of the energy sector would lead to a modest growth rate of 0.6% per year. The values for 2011 demonstrate the dominance of fossil fuels.

2. With a total capacity of 382 GW(e) from 441 nuclear reactors in 30 countries (as of January 2016) and an accumulated experience from approximately 15 000 years of operation, nuclear energy has evolved to an industrially mature and reliable source of electricity and a key component in the global energy economy. Nuclear energy represents a low carbon technology with low amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a life cycle basis.

Currently, 64 nuclear power plants with a total capacity of over 63 GW(e) are under construction in 15 countries. Just four countries — China, India, the Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation — account for 39 of them and 58% of the electrical capacity (37 GW(e)). China, with 21 nuclear power plants (21.1 GW(e)) is constructing the largest capacity.

From the global electricity production in 2010 of approximately 21 400 TWh, around 13% was generated by nuclear power. It dropped to 11% in 2011 following the substantial decline in nuclear power generation in Japan (-44%), Germany (-23%) and the United States of America (-2%).

3. With the loss of Fukushima Units 1-6, Japan went from 54 nuclear reactors down to 48. For five of the older light water reactors (LWRs), however, the decision to shut them down permanently from the end of April 2015 reduced the number of reactor units to 43, with a total installed nuclear capacity of 40 GW(e). Additional capacity came from natural gas fired power generation, low sulphur crude oil and fuel oil — albeit insufficient to avoid power cuts. In 2011, Japan imported 12.2% more liquefied natural gas compared to 2010. Discussion has begun on restarting idle LWRs under tougher safety standards. The first nuclear facility (Ohi) was brought back into operation in July 2012, followed by Sendai-1 and 2 in September 2015.

4. In June 2011, the German Parliament voted to shut down permanently seven of its older nuclear reactors built before 1980 and to close the remaining plants by 2022. The political move toward the transformation of the energy system (‘Energiewende’) is accompanied by a comprehensive legislative package to favour and promote green technologies. In addition to the expansion of subsidized wind and solar energy toward the 35% target share of electricity by 2020, the Energiewende calls for the enhanced use of decentralized cogeneration stations (mainly natural gas driven), an increase in energy efficiency and energy savings. An immediate consequence of the nuclear shutdown, however, has been the increased use of coal, which means Germany is rather unlikely to meet the self-imposed stringent target in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, the reduced load factor of gas fired power plants (due to the priority of variable renewables in the grid) has made them unprofitable to run, and so utilities have taken several new gas fired power plants off-line.

5. Regarding the future development of nuclear power worldwide, the IAEA reports that in the 2012 updated low projection, global installed nuclear power capacity will grow from 370 GW(e) to 456 GW(e) by 2030. This would be accomplished by an additional 21 nuclear power plants (206 new builds minus 185 retirements). In the updated high projection, it will grow to 740 GW(e) by 2030, with 327 more nuclear power plants (386 new builds minus 59 retirements). The IAEA makes the predictions under the following assumptions:

“Most of the growth will occur in regions that already have operating nuclear power plants”.

“Projected growth is strongest in the Far East, which includes China and the Republic of Korea. From 80 GW(e) at the end of 2011, capacity grows to 153 GW(e) in 2030 in the low projection and to 274 GW(e) in the high.

“Western Europe shows the biggest difference between the low and high projections. In the low projection, Western Europe’s nuclear power capacity drops from 115 GW(e) at the end of 2011 to 70 GW(e) in 2030. In the high projection, nuclear power grows to 126 GW(e).”

6. Global annual consumption of uranium is greater than production, with the temporary difference being compensated by high enriched uranium retrieved from dismantled nuclear weapons. World uranium production increased from 31 kt in 1994 to 54 kt in 2010 and to 60 kt in 2013, mainly owing to higher production volumes in Kazakhstan. Based on the ten States, the total identified uranium resource base is estimated to be around 1.4 Mt at cost of under US $80/kgU and around 4.8 Mt at under US $130/kgU.

 “The uranium market is currently well-supplied and projected primary uranium production capabilities including existing, committed, planned and prospective production centres would satisfy projected high case requirements through 2032 and low case requirements through 2035 if developments proceed as planned.”

Of the 31 countries with nuclear power plants, there are three which are are self-sufficient in their uranium needs: Canada, the Russian Federation and South Africa.

While about 20% of the uranium produced is from open pit mining and 26% from underground mining, the dominant production method today has become in situ leaching with 45%. Economically recoverable uranium mines have uranium concentrations of at least 0.03%. Unconventional uranium resources include phosphate deposits and sea water. From sea water, it is thought that about 4 billion t of uranium is technically extractable.

7. Of the total final energy consumption of the global economy in 2010, around 28% was consumed in the industry sector. The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) reports:

“In 2007, the industry sector worldwide used approximately 127 exajoules (EJ) of final energy, accounting for more than one-third of global final energy use...”

“Energy costs as a proportion of production costs vary significantly between different end-products, amounting to as much as 80% of ammonia production costs and between 1% and 10% in yam making and the machinery sector.”

One of the key findings in the UNIDO report is that:

“The bulk of industrial energy use is accounted for by the production of a relatively small number of energy intensive commodities. Chemicals and petrochemicals and the iron and steel sector account for approximately half of all industrial energy used worldwide. Other sectors that account for a significant share of industrial energy use are non-ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals and the pulp and paper sector.”

The total share of GHG emissions in 2010 from the industrial sector was an estimated 29%. A break down by industrial branches shows that the industry sectors of non-metallic industries, iron and steel, and chemicals and petrochemicals are the largest GHG emitters.

8. Energy consumption in the transport sector is dominated by petroleum based liquids. The share of world transportation energy use attributed to petroleum-based liquids does not change significantly over the projection period, but oil’s dominance may begin to be challenged by advancing technologies. Uncertainty about the security of oil supplies, the prospect of rising oil prices, and environmental concerns about emissions associated with the combustion of petroleum pose challenges to countries that are experiencing rapid motorization and have to import large portions of their transportation fuel supplies. As a result, future trends in transportation demand will be influenced by government policies directed at reducing emissions and congestion while promoting alternative fuels, advanced vehicle technologies, and mass public transportation.

 “Energy consumption in the transportation sector results almost entirely from combustion of petroleum based liquids and accounts for about 25% of the world’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions. With the development of advanced electric and fuel cell vehicles, nuclear energy could displace a significant portion of the petroleum based liquids consumed in the transportation sector, which would significantly reduce CO2 emissions. During the transition to advanced vehicles, HTRs [high temperature reactors] can also be used to provide some of the energy needs to convert coal and/or natural gas to transportation fuels for conventional vehicles. The market for HTRs in the transportation sector is potentially very large, even if there is significant demand and market penetration for advanced vehicles. The steam-cycle HTR is a demonstrated technology and could be deployed in a relatively short time frame to supply electricity for AEVs [all electric vehicles]. Hydrogen production using thermochemical water splitting and HTSE [high temperature steam electrolysis] are longer-term, developmental technologies that can be coupled to VHTRs [very high temperature reactors] to provide hydrogen for FCEVs [fuel cell electric vehicles].”

9. The fuel mix changes slowly, due to long gestation periods and asset lifetimes. Gas and non-fossil fuels gain share at the expense of coal and oil. The fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels).

OECD total energy consumption is virtually flat, but there are significant shifts in the fuel mix. Renewables displace oil in transport and coal in power generation; gas gains at the expense of coal in power. These shifts are driven by a combination of relative fuel prices, technological innovation and policy interventions.

Nuclear output is restored to pre-Fukushima levels by 2020, but thereafter shows only modest growth. Hydro continues to grow slowly, constrained by the availability of suitable sites.

In the non-OECD growth is more evenly split between renewables, nuclear and hydro, as rapidly growing economies call on all available sources of energy supply. Nuclear output grows rapidly, averaging 7.8% p.a. 2010-30, as China, India and Russia pursue ambitious expansion programmes.

Industry leads the growth of final energy consumption, particularly in rapidly developing economies. The industrial sector accounts for 60% of the projected growth of final energy demand to 2030.

The generation of electricity will rise significantly by 2030. The worldwide installed capacity is estimated to grow from 5549 GW(e) in 2012 to 9760 GW(e) by 2035, by which time a capacity of 1940 GW(e) will have been retired (mainly coal fired plants).

The industry sectors of iron and steel and chemicals and petrochemicals do not follow a short term demand, but rather tend to operate at full capacity. Enhanced energy utilization could be achieved by improving performance in these sectors. Boilers and steam distribution systems can be major contributors to energy losses. Moreover, some industries are moving toward more sustainable energy technologies to reduce their carbon footprint. However, they are outpaced by the increase in energy consumption.

Most primary fuels consumed in the industrial sector are petroleum and natural gas, which have highly volatile prices. Replacing fossil fuels with nuclear energy might not only help to reduce carbon dioxide and toxic gas emissions, it may even become more economically competitive on account of the low and stable marginal fuel cost. For larger, centralized industries, the supply of safe, reliable process heat and cogenerating electricity from medium sized nuclear reactors of the next generation can represent an appropriate choice.